The Empire Cracks:

UnitedHealth’s $288 Billion Wipeout

𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘀 $𝟱𝟵𝟵 𝗳𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗼.

I wrote that in May of 2025.

𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘁 $𝟯𝟮𝟭.𝟱𝟴

This wasn’t a correction.
It was a controlled demolition.

Year to date: DOWN $182.93 (-36.3%)
Past 10 years: UP only $210.17 (from starting position of $111.41)
Peak to current: DOWN nearly 50% from the 52-week high of $630.73

Wall Street called it a “market reaction.”
But anyone paying attention knows the truth:
This was a reckoning.

Let’s break it down.

The Bait and Switch

𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀, 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘄 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗯𝘆 𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝘆 𝗼𝗯𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀:

• $0 premiums

• No deductibles

• Broker bonuses

• Gym memberships, eyeglasses, dental coverage

All designed to capture market share.

For twenty years, they grew. From covering a handful of seniors to dominating the market, 9.9 million members as of February 2025. The most significant Medicare Advantage player in America.

𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗽𝘁:

• Doubled the out-of-pocket max

• Introduced new deductibles

• Cut benefits

• Raised premiums

• Exited entire counties

The strategy: Bleed the unprofitable seniors. Increase margins. Wall Street would love it.

They assumed seniors wouldn’t notice, or wouldn’t leave.
They were wrong.

The CEO Murder

𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘀𝗼𝗻, 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗼𝗳 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲, 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗺𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱.

December 2024. Midtown Manhattan. Brazen daylight assassination.

The reaction wasn’t horror.
It was… complicated.

Public sentiment revealed something Wall Street didn’t want to see: deep, visceral resentment toward the industry. Stories of denied claims. Bankrupt families. Medical debt. Prior authorization nightmares.

The murder captured international attention and surfaced a truth the C-suite had been insulating itself from: people hate what these companies do.

No press frenzy defending UnitedHealth.
No analyst rallying cries.
Just… silence.

But the boardroom lights flickered.

Then came the op-ed.
CEO Andrew Witty wrote a New York Times piece defending the company, calling the healthcare system “flawed” but essentially defending the status quo.

The public called him tone-deaf.
Out of touch.
Corporatist.

The damage was done.

The Perfect Storm

While public relations burned, the fundamentals began to crumble.

May 13, 2025: The Double Whammy
In a single day, UnitedHealth delivered two devastating blows:

1. CEO Andrew Witty abruptly resigned for unspecified “personal reasons”

2. The company suspended its entire 2025 financial outlook

The stock plummeted 18% in one day—the worst single-day drop since 1998.
Why suspend guidance?

“Care activity continued to accelerate.”

Translation: Medical costs for new Medicare Advantage members were way higher than expected.

And here’s the punchline:
They were surprised that sick seniors needed care.

United bet the house that seniors would choose to die quietly rather than ask for help. That didn’t pan out.

Turns out when you advertise “comprehensive benefits,” people might take you up on it, especially if they’re, you know, sick.
The bait-and-switch broke the business model.

Stephen Hemsley, Darth Vader himself, returned as CEO.

The 72-year-old former chief executive (2006–2017), who oversaw the mergers that built this empire, was brought back to stop the bleeding.

His message: “We expect to return to growth in 2026.”
Translation: 2025 is a write-off.

The Federal Investigations

𝗔𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲, 𝗳𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝘂𝗽 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:

July 2025: UnitedHealth Confirms DOJ Investigation

After months of denials, the company finally admitted what Wall Street had suspected:

Both criminal and civil Department of Justice investigations into Medicare billing practices.

The focus: Medicare Advantage fraud.
The allegations:

• Inflating diagnoses to trigger higher Medicare payments

• Pressuring doctors to submit claims for conditions that boost reimbursements

• Risk adjustment manipulation (overcoding patient severity to maximize federal payments)

The Medicare Advantage business generated $139 billion in revenue last year.
Medicare Advantage was not a side hustle.
It was the core.

The Agencies Circling:

• Department of Justice (criminal investigation)

• Department of Justice (civil investigation)

• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)

• Internal Revenue Service

• Securities and Exchange Commission

• Department of Labor

UnitedHealth’s response:
“We stand by the integrity of our Medicare Advantage program.”
The stock dropped another 3%.

The Enrollment Exodus

While fighting investigations, the company faced another problem: its senior staff were leaving.

October 2025: The Million-Member Drop

UnitedHealth announced it expects Medicare Advantage enrollment to decline by 1 million people in 2026.

Let me repeat that: The nation’s largest Medicare Advantage insurer is projecting it will lose 1 million members.

This wasn’t from plan terminations alone. This was:

• 600,000+ from deliberately exiting plans/counties

• 400,000+ from seniors switching to competitors due to UnitedHealth’s higher prices and reduced benefits

Tim Noel, the new CEO of UnitedHealthcare (the insurance division), who replaced the murdered Brian Thompson, said it plainly:

“Our plan for next year reflects a conservative path focused on margin growth.”

Translation:
We’re not trying to grow anymore.
We’re trying to survive.

UnitedHealth isn’t shedding a million members because of some grand strategic pivot. They’re doing it because Grandma finally got mad.

You can only cancel so many colonoscopies and replace them with SilverSneakers before people notice the fine print.

This isn’t “shrinking strategically”, it’s retreating behind a flaming wall of boomer rage and actuarial math that no longer works.

The Financial Wreckage

Let’s talk numbers.

Market Cap Destruction: $288 billion wiped out
At its peak in 2024, UnitedHealth was worth approximately $580 billion.

Today: $291 billion.

Stock Performance:

• Down 36% year-to-date

• Down 46% over the past year

• Down 48% from its 52-week high

• Trading at $321.58 (as of November 11, 2025)

Institutional Investors Are Fleeing:

In Q2 2025 alone:

• Capital Research Global Investors: SOLD $4.7 billion (-72.4%)

• FMR LLC: SOLD $2.3 billion (-30.6%)

• Morgan Stanley: SOLD $1.9 billion (-29.3%)

• JPMorgan Chase: SOLD $1.9 billion (-24.0%)

But one man walked into the fire.

Only Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought in, scooping up $1.6 billion in stock like he was shopping the clearance rack at Sears circa 1997.

Maybe he sees deep value. Or perhaps he just forgot what year it is.

Either way, while most investors were running for the exits with their hair on fire, Uncle Warren was pushing a shopping cart through the rubble, whistling a folksy tune about “buying when there’s blood in the streets.”

This time? The blood is mostly Medicare-funded.

Analyst Downgrades:

Bank of America downgraded UnitedHealth from “buy” to “neutral,” warning it could take years to recover.

Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes called it a “perfect storm.”
The company that once seemed invincible is now a cautionary tale.

Why This Matters

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝘀, 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗮 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆.

It was a financial instrument wearing a stethoscope.
A hedge fund with a denial department.

A rent-seeking middleman that grew fat on taxpayer dollars while squeezing patients and doctors.

And that model just hit the wall.
OptumRx is now a liability, not a moat.

The pharmacy benefits manager, who was supposed to be the secret weapon, is now under investigation for rebate schemes and formulary manipulation.

Medicare Advantage is collapsing from within.

Enrollment growth has slowed to 3.1% in 2025, one of the slowest rates ever. Insurers across the board are retrenching.

Even in the CMS projects industry, enrollment could decline for the first time in two decades.

The integrated model is unraveling.

For years, UnitedHealth’s pitch was simple:
We own the insurance, the pharmacy, the clinics, the data.

Vertical integration creates efficiency and better care.

In reality?

It created conflicts of interest, opacity, and a machine designed to maximize revenue extraction at every touchpoint.

When the machine broke, there was no escape hatch.

Meanwhile, Independent Physicians Have Known This Playbook for Years

Get big.
Deny claims.
Control access.

Kill price transparency.
Lobby for regulations that eliminate competition.

But here’s the shift:

Now, patients and payers are waking up, too.
Seniors aren’t just switching plans, they’re asking questions.

Employers aren’t just accepting renewal increases, they’re exploring alternatives.
Doctors aren’t just accepting denials, they’re building direct models.

This isn’t just about one stock.

It’s about the unraveling of a model built on opacity, predation, and policy manipulation.

The Empire Is Cracking

From $599 in April 2025 to $321 in November 2025.

A 46% collapse.

$288 billion in market value destroyed.

The CEO of United Insurance was murdered.
The CEO of United Healthcare Group resigned.
The veteran, Darth Vader himself, was brought back from retirement.

Criminal investigations.
Civil investigations.

Enrollment exodus.
Institutional investor flight.

All while the company insists everything is fine.
But the charts don’t lie.

The exodus doesn’t lie.
The investigations don’t lie.

The empire is cracking.

🔥 This Is Not the Bottom, It’s the Starting Line

If you’re a doctor?

Unplug yourself.
Unite against the payers.
Go direct.
Find employers. Get loud.

If you’re a patient?

Opt out.
Stop feeding the machine. Demand clarity, not coupons. Choose care—not coverage.

If you’re an employer?

Stop writing checks to the villain.
You’re funding your own employees’ suffering and calling it “benefits.”

This isn’t a blip.
It’s a blueprint, for collapse, or for revolution.

The empire is cracking.
Be the aftershock.

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HAPPY VETERAN’S DAY!

Today we pause to honor those who carried freedom on their shoulders and asked for nothing in return.

Veterans Day is a reminder that courage is timeless, and that the price of liberty is paid by those willing to serve.

To all who wore the uniform: thank you.
We remember.
We stand grateful.

There are currently 1.3 million active duty service members in the United States military, roughly 0.4% of our population.

There are approximately 18 million living veterans have served, just 7% of all living Americans.

More than 41 million Americans have lost a family member in war over our nation’s history.

The average veteran served 6.8 years on active duty, with many serving multiple deployments in combat zones.

These numbers represent mothers and fathers, brothers and sisters, neighbors and friends who wrote a blank check payable with their lives in defense of our country.

- Rojas out.